John Duke independent research on equatorial Pacific climate dynamics


John H. Duke
138 Congdon Street
Providence, RI 02906 USA

Email: JohnDuke@JohnDuke.com

A discovery of sporadic semidiurnal tide resonance in the western equatorial Pacific thermocline prior to El Niño onset leads to a reinterpretation of the Tropical Hypothesis of global change in multiple time scales.


4-Oct-2011 revision, Climate of the Past Discussions, 6, 905-961, 2010:

The tropical hypothesis revisited: Is Pacific countercurrent consolidation  the common mechanism of global cooling in interannual, millennial, and orbital time scales?

Abstract: Pacific countercurrent consolidation (PCC) is proposed to be the common mechanism of El Niño – La Niña mediated climate change in interannual, millenial, and orbital time scales, reflecting operation in a single Earth system. In short time scales, PCC follows a novel hypothesis of El Niño – La Niña forcing in which internal tide resonance dissipates the vorticity that powers northward Sverdrup transport, so the North Equatorial Countercurrent merges geostrophically into the Equatorial Undercurrent. The resulting PCC reduces countercurrent shear surface friction to trigger eastward advection at El Niño onset. ITR is observed in wavelet analysis of one hour resolution western Pacific thermocline temperature,  revealing  >8°C amplitude resonance in the semidiurnal tide band prior to El Niño onset in 1997, 2002 and 2006. This ITR is independent of westerly wind bursts. Subsequently, persistent PCC prevents warm pool recharge, leading to an equatorially symmetric La Niña mode with global cooling teleconnections. Proposed interannual and millennial time scale cycles in higher tidal force are consistent with instrument and proxy records of global cooling phases. In orbital time scales, mutual precession and obliquity mediated southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone also results in PCC, because the North Equatorial Countercurrent follows the intertropical convergence zone. The mid-Pleistocene transition is evidence of mutual obliquity-precession control, for this is when their phase relationship changes from 1:2 (40 thousand year cycles) to 2:5 or 3:5 (80 or 120 thousand year cycles). 


2010, Do periodic consolidations of Pacific countercurrents trigger global cooling by equatorially symmetric La Niña? Climate of the Past Discussions, 6, 905-961, 2010

2009, Summary of related 2007 geoengineering proposal

2009, Tidal-Orbital Pan-Timescale Mechanism of Global Cooling

2008d, A Common Mechanism of Multi-timescale Abrupt Global Change, Eos Trans. AGU,89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract PP23C-1485

2008c, A tropical actuator of orbital control of glacial phase transition, Eos Trans. AGU,89(23), Jt. Assem. Suppl., Abstract PP21A-03

2008b, Does winter monsoon convection during equatorially symmetric La Niña trigger glaciation by de-powering the Hadley Cell? (Accepted May, 2008 for publication in Climate of the Past Discussions, withdrawn.)

2008a, A proposal to force vertical mixing of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent to create a system ofequatorially trapped coupled convection that counteracts global warming, Geophysical Research Abstracts,10, EGU2008-A-10885

2007, A proposal to force vertical mixing of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent to create a system of equatorially trapped coupled convection that counteracts global warming.

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